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Daniel Andrews, Matthew Guy campaigns continue; Shaun Gilchrist dies; Tyler Baker-Pearce preferred over Labor on how-to-vote card; Catherine Cumming criticized over ‘red mist’ remark

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Earlier this morning, Annika Smethurst give Paul Sakkal told you that the major parties now appear to be neck-and-neck on primary votes.

That’s according to Resolve Strategic’s final poll for the Victorian election campaign.

Premier Daniel Andrews and Opposition Leader Matthew Guy.Credit:Eddie Jim, Jason South

Jim Reed, Resolve’s director, has since appeared on ABC Radio Melbourne where he said the state could be “on the cusp” of a minority government.

“It’s a bit of a toss up,” he said.

Presenter Virginia Trioli wanted to know: Given previous polls have shown Labor in a position to retain a majority government, albeit with reduced support, what has changed in the past few weeks and days?

Reed said that, while Labor’s vote has dropped by two points – which is within the margin of error – it appears that the Liberals and Nationals are capturing some votes from supporters of minor parties and independents.

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“Our read is that there’s been a protest vote parked with some of those people who simply haven’t brought themselves to come across to [Matthew] Guy and the Liberals so far,” he said.

“That’s changing as we’ve had a fairly negative campaign … and Daniel Andrews has struggled to get his message out. [Some supporters of independents and minor parties] are now thinking that’s the only way to change the government.

“[But] the Coalition still have to make the case for Guy as an agent of positive change.”

Reed added that he suspects Victoria will elect more Greens and independents on Saturday, but there won’t be a “huge wave” that other polls have suggested.

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